A scenario analysis report titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” from a financial research publication has ruffled some feathers in the top policy echelons and stock markets as the White House tried to dismiss it as “science fiction.”
Prepared by Citrini Research, the scenario analysis report is presented in the form of a memo dated June 30, 2028, where the world takes a hypothetical economic plunge, with massive job cuts and further investments in artificial intelligence (AI). The report begins with a dismal market state where the global unemployment rate rose to 10.2% in 2028 from the current 4.9% in 2026.
Reacting to the paper, Pierre Yared, the acting chair of White House Economic Advisers, dismissed it as mere “science fiction” that violates basic economics.
“The Citrni report is an interesting piece of science fiction and I like science fiction. But I think that if you really look at it, and think long and hard about it, it violates some of the basic accounting in economics,” said Yared while speaking to reporters in Washington.
Markets also reacted sharply to the paper with Dow losing over 800 points on Monday, closing at the day’s low with just 27% stocks gaining ground. DoorDash, American Express, KKR and Blackstone all dropped more than 8%, while Mastercard, Visa, Capital One and Apollo Global Management were all down at least 3%.
What is the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis report prepared by Citrni?
James Van Geelen and Alap Shah, the makers of “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” report have clarified that their report is not a doomsday reportage but based on the current trajectory of AI advancements, job disruptions and current market movements due to AI.
The report argues that AI “bullishness” can be economically bearish and presents an economically dystopian world in near future, where AI agents are embedded in every sector with massive layoff and companies switching to better workflow automation by cutting the headcount and using the savings to “fund the very technology disrupting it.”
“The companies most threatened by AI became AI’s most aggressive adopters,” reads the report.
The report produces a stark warning for middle power countries like India stating that by 2028, the country’s $200 billion IT services will become obsolete due to AI.
The report’s most alarming financial claim is that over $2.5 trillion in private credit — much of it deployed into PE-backed software deals — sits on balance sheets at inflated marks, with the real losses yet to be recognized. Even more striking is its warning on mortgages: unlike 2008, the borrowers at risk this time are 780 FICO score professionals with 20% down payments.
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